The buy vs. rent decision - value of money

 

The buy vs. rent decision problem is a classical project to illustrate the value of money in the financial courses. There are different versions of this project. The context of the various versions are pretty much the same with the change only on the numbers - interest rate, price of the condo, etc. Here a solution based on the Python functions is provided using the functionalities implemented in this article.

The story started with the consideration to buy a property. In May 2013, Rebecca Young completed her MBA and moved to Toronto for a new job in investment banking. There, she rented a spacious, two-bedroom condominium for $3,000 per month, which included parking but not utilities or cable television. In July 2014, the virtually identical unit next door became available for sale with an asking price of $620,000, and Young believed she could purchase it for $600,000. She realized she was facing the classic buy-versus-rent decision. It was time for her to apply some of the analytical tools she had acquired in business school — including “time value of money” concepts — to her personal life...

Summary of the financial details

• Purchase price of the property: $600,000
• Down payment: 20% of property price
• Mortgage interest (Semi-annual compound): 4% 
• Mortgage periods: 25 years 
• Owner monthly fees: Condo fee ($1055) + property tax ($300) + maintenance ($50)
• Purchase closing cost: 1.5% + 1.5% + $2000
• Rent: $3000 

Summary of scenarios

1. The condo price remains unchanged
2. The condo price drops 10% over the next two years, then increases back to it's purchase price by the end of 5 years
3. The condo price increases annually by the annual rate of inflation of 2% over the next 10 years
4. The condo price increases annually by an annual rate of 5% over the next 10 years.

Summary of selling fees

• 5% of selling price
• $2000 flat fee

The loan amount is the $600k * 80% = $480k. The monthly rate can be calculated from the nominal interest as r = (1 + 0.04/2)^(1/6) - 1. The total number of payments is 25x12 = 300. The monthly payment of loan can be calculated as below. The number is $2524.9. The opportunity cost is the extra payment comparing to rent - 2524.9 + 1055 + 300 + 50 - 3000 = 929.91.

def get_monthly_pmt(loan_amt, r, n):
    """ calculate monthly payment
    loan_amt: inital loan amount
    r: monthly interest
    n: total number of payments
    """
    return loan_amt*r*(1 + r)**n / ((1 + r)**n - 1)

def get_principle(loan_amt, A, r, t):
    """ calculate principle for month t
    loan_amt: intial loan amount
    A: monthly payment
    r: monthly intrest
    t: number of payments
    """
    return loan_amt*((1 + r)**t) - A*((1 + r)**t - 1)/r

"""

r = (1 + 0.04/2)^(1/6) - 1 = 0.00330589

>>> get_monthly_pmt(loan_amt=480000, r=0.00330589, n=300)

2524.905347597944
"""

Considering the value of money in the future, the opportunity cost is contributed by two parts: 

• The initial out of pocket - the value is expected to increase in the future with the initial deposit. The initial out of pocket is down payment plus closing cost: 600000*20% + 600000*3% + 2000 = $140,000.
• The savings of rent - the accumulative value is expected to increase in the future by continuous contribution of $929.91.

The future value of the opportunity cost in 2, 5 and 10 years can be calculated as below. The interesting observation here is that the decision of bur or rent is highly dependent on the housing price variation.

def get_future_value_init(deposit, r, n):
    """ Calculate future value
    deposit: monthly deposit
    r: monthly interest
    n: total number of months
    """
    return deposit*(1 + r)**n


def get_future_value(deposit, r, n):
    """ Calculate future value
    deposit: monthly deposit
    r: monthly interest
    n: total number of deposit
    """
    return deposit*((1 + r)**n - 1)/r

for i in [24, 60, 120]:
    a = get_future_value_init(140000, r=0.00330589, n=i)
    b = get_future_value(929.91, r=0.00330589, n=i)
    print(a, b, a+b)
 

"""
151540.5012231941 23187.245216568885 174727.74643976297
170659.2154860795 61600.682143214086 232259.8976292936
208032.62735945804 136691.56848584456 344724.1958453026
"""

Scenario analysis

The principle balance after 2, 5, and 10 years can be calculated as follows. The take-home amount is the selling price subtracted by the selling fee and principle balance. And the future value can be derived by the take-home amount subtracted by the future value of the opportunity.

def get_principle(loan_amt, A, r, t):
    """ calculate principle for month t
    loan_amt: intial loan amount
    A: monthly payment
    r: monthly intrest
    t: number of payments
    """
    return loan_amt*((1 + r)**t) - A*((1 + r)**t - 1)/r


for i in [24, 60, 120]:
    print(get_principle(480000, A=2524.91, r=0.00330589, t=i))
    
"""
456608.96654832666
417857.9213183897
342107.0756292622
"""

The results of the 4 different scenarios are summarized as below. It's an interesting observation that the final net future value is highly dependent on the property price. The decision to buy or rent the property is based on the housing market.

Scenario 1:

Opportunity	Principle	Selling-price	Selling-fee	Take-home	Net-future-value
174,728	456,609	600,000	32,000	111,391	-63,337
232,260	417,858	600,000	32,000	150,142	-82,118
344,724	342,107	600,000	32,000	225,893	-118,831

Scenario 2:

Opportunity	Principle	Selling-price	Selling-fee	Take-home	Net-future-value
174,728	456,609	540,000	29,000	54,391	-120,337
232,260	417,858	600,000	32,000	150,142	-82,118
344,724	342,107	660,000	35,000	282,893	-61,831

Scenario 3:

Opportunity	Principle	Selling-price	Selling-fee	Take-home	Net-future-value
174,728	456,609	624,240	33,212	134,419	-40,309
232,260	417,858	662,448	35,122	209,468	-22,792
344,724	342,107	731,397	38,570	350,720	5,996

Scenario 4:

Opportunity	Principle	Selling-price	Selling-fee	Take-home	Net-future-value
174,728	456,609	661,500	35,075	169,816	-4,912
232,260	417,858	765,769	40,288	307,623	75,363
344,724	342,107	977,337	50,867	584,363	239,639